November 14, 2012

"Why Hispanics are Natural Democrats and what the GOP can do about it"

Economist Tino Sanandaji explains at Super-Economy in a major, graph-laden posting:
As you see, there has never been a majority of Hispanics voting for a Republican president. This even when Republicans have supported or even enacted an immigration Amnesty, the issue most commonly cited as key to garner Hispanic support. The variation in Republican support is fairly small. 
What turned out to be decisive in 2012 was hence the increase in the number of Hispanic voters.  
Romney received 27 percent of the Hispanic vote, marginally down from Pro-Comprehensive Immigration Reform John McCain who got 31 percent. The highest vote share a Republican has received among Hispanics is Texas governor George Bush who got 40 percent post 9-11 and right before the peak of the housing boom, and hence the peak of Hispanic economic fortunes. The 40 percent Bush got was still a decisive defeat. Even though Republican President Ronald Reagan had granted illegal immigrants Amnesty in 1986, two years later only 30 percent of Hispanics voted for Bush Sr.  
This ["natural Republicans"] claim is demonstrably false. In 2012 Hispanics solidly support the Democrats on virtually every issue, not only on illegal immigration. This includes taxes, the size of government, health care. Less known is that increasingly liberal Hispanics now support Democrats on abortion, gay marriage and contraception.  
Why do Hispanics vote Democrat? The main reason is that Hispanics on average earn far less than Whites (henceforth "Whites" refers to non-Hispanic Whites). It is simply not in Hispanic material self-interests to vote for the party of limited government. 
The main reason that people believe largely unsupported claims about Hispanics being “Natural Republicans” is that unflattering facts about immigration are considered gauche in US public debate. It is just not nice to point out that a large segment of a group is comparatively poor and low-skilled. Though confronting these facts frankly may be uncomfortable to some, doing so is crucial to the survival of the Republican Party.

Read the whole thing there.

52 comments:

Anonymous said...

Less known is that increasingly liberal Hispanics now support Democrats on abortion, gay marriage and contraception.

Really? Thats reaching a bit isnt it?

Anonymous said...

I've been reading through, while they may follow the lead on acceptance of homosexuality I dont see anything there that looks like support for gay marriage.

Anonymous said...

I wrote something similar on a friend's facebook page after Romney lost and I got Virtually Attacked by a bunch of hispanics the person was friends with (for several days the thread was alive long after I left.)

They called me racist bitch, some nasty spanish words and a whole lot of stuff, and a white guy jumped in too to add to the bitch part and a white woman was like "Your the person who causes minorities not to vote Republican!"

It was CRAZY! Hispanics (and many whites) are like angry hyenas when they get into a group.

Nothing I wrote was anything more than what was in this article, in fact I'd say it was less inflammative and very anti-republican. It's just that I'm blue eyed and white and dare spoke about a race other than my own in a non-officially sanctioned setting.

Honestly, the people who spoke to me like that should be embarrassed at how badly they were raised. The guy defriended me too. His loss.

I hope this way of speaking comes out into the open so that every single one of those people who savagely attacked me look themselves in the mirror and know that they are not fit to live in a civilized society with civilized discourse. I doubt any will though.










Anonymous said...

Kurdish-Swedish perspectives on the American Economy.

Say what?!?

He's 31 years old, and he's got a Swedish mother and a Kurdish father?!?

Hey, the other day, I tried to get Komment Kontrol interested in the ethnicity of Jill "Khaman"? Kelley, but something I wrote must have set off the alarm bells.

Anyway, for a while now, I have had this weird feeling that maybe we could find some allies amongst what you might call the "forgotten" peoples of the middle and near east - folks like the Armenians [the Kardashians notwithstanding] and the Zoroastrians and the Kurds and the Levantine Christians.

We've got some home-schooling Levantine Christians down the road from us who are the second-most conservative family in town [after mine, of course].

Anonymous said...

Tino is a G. Not a racist, but a citizenist. He must also know about HBD but is just too smart and young to sabotage his career and friendships by outing himself. One upside of the current U.S. immigration system is that America got to steal him from Sweden.

-Hank the Plant

fnn said...

"Conservatives can offer Hispanics a far better deal than this. They should reach out with an open hand to Hispanics and offer them to join America as full citizens, not only formally but in all regards, as the Irish and Italians did before them. Libertarians, neocons and liberals that are high on Ellis-Island sentimentalism seem to forget that Irish- and Italian-Americans no longer view themselves as primarily Irish or Italian. Nor have they made more Irish/Italian immigration their primary political demand. They are fully American, not just Italians/Irish/Mexicans residing in America. Isn’t that after all the American Dream? Isn’t this what they came here for? For themselves and their children to become fully American, in outcomes and values and identity?" -Tito

Through control of media, education industry and federal bureaucracy the left "controls the discourse," which makes it "hegemonic." Therefore,they are the ones who define normality and the conservatives are now abnormal.

Anonymous said...

The GOP thinks hispanics are natural Republicans because hispanics are right wing in the way most of the world is (ethocetric, nationalistic, religious, etc.). However, their interests aren't aligned with GOP policy, so they won't vote GOP. The hodge podge of nominally communist third world nations aren't really leftists, even if they've branded themselves as such. You don't see any North Koreans waving rainbow flags and attacking the gender binary. Their ideology is a will a power for their particular volk, and not much else. Ho Chi Minh, calling himself Nguyen the Patriot, showed up at the Versailles peace talks citing the Declaration of Independence, but was ignored. So he ended up as a communist as that served his own nationalistic visions better.

Anonymous said...

'Less known is that increasingly liberal Hispanics now support Democrats on abortion, gay marriage and contraception.'

Abortion and contra are good. It will slow down mex birthrates.

Anonymous said...

Jill "Khaman" Kelley = Jill "Khawam" Kelley

Chicago said...

The term 'Hispanic' is just an artificially created umbrella term which ends up confusing people. Most people are really talking about Mexicans when they use the term, lumping in all other Spanish-speakers as an afterthought. The current crop of illegals coming into this sanctuary city appear, on visual inspection, to be of the four foot high Indian variety. Things must be bad for the 'Hispanic' Indian tribes back home.
The writer claims there is no "corresponding ethos of individualism, self-reliance and distrust of government" in Latin America. Most of those countries have had dictatorships and greedy oligarchies, something that hardly inspires trust amongst the populace. Mexican police are famously crooked; they are there to rip you off, to extort from people and are not trusted. Most Latin Americans evade paying taxes if at all possible since they know it mostly gets stolen anyway. The writer points out that many of these immigrants are self-employed with small operations; this undercuts his claim that they aren't particularly self-reliant. They do love welfare though since it's free and gets shoved at them, not something they got back home.
He's an academic and many people will just accept whatever he writes as being a guide to the mind of the 'Hispanic', that puzzling creature out there. Many pundits now seem to think that the Republican path to victory is to gather up all the midgets and stray dogs out there and lead them all in a great torchlight parade down Main street.

Anonymous said...

Anyway, for a while now, I have had this weird feeling that maybe we could find some allies amongst what you might call the "forgotten" peoples of the middle and near east - folks like the Armenians [the Kardashians notwithstanding] and the Zoroastrians and the Kurds and the Levantine Christians.

Don't forget the Yezidis!

Half Sigma said...

Republicans also believe that Hispanics will vote for them because they are Catholic and Catholics are pro-life.

But pro-life blacks don't vote Republican. And Hispanics with family incomes greater than $75K, the kind who might vote Republican for economic issues, are more pro-choice than the average non-Hispanic American.

http://www.halfsigma.com/2012/11/hispanics-and-abortion.html

ben tillman said...

Why do Hispanics vote Democrat? The main reason is that Hispanics on average earn far less than Whites.... It is simply not in Hispanic material self-interests to vote for the party of limited government.

It's not complicated, is it?

Victor said...

An economist with common sense! Now I've seen everything.

Anonymous said...

"Less known is that increasingly liberal Hispanics now support Democrats on abortion, gay marriage and contraception."

Really? Thats reaching a bit isnt it?



No, it isn't.

Severn said...

Even though Republican President Ronald Reagan had granted illegal immigrants Amnesty in 1986, two years later only 30 percent of Hispanics voted for Bush Sr.


In a sane world, that would be all anybody would need to know. And yet many Republicans spent the 1990's and the 2000's eager to repeat the Reagan amnesty. The "Stupid Party" moniker seems disturbingly apt.

DPG said...

I love his line about Mexicans in Mexico voting for liberal populists because of Republican opposition to amnesty. Absolutely devastating to the idea that Hispanics would become more conservative if only the Republicans would invite them into the US.

Severn said...

Studies have shown that Hispanic Republicans are more in favor of increasing the size of government than are white Democrats.

Anonymous said...

"In another survey, after the Democrat shift on this issue Pew finds: “More Latinos Now Favor Gay Marriage Than Oppose”, by a healthy 52-34 margin."

http://www.pewforum.org/Race/Latinos-Religion-and-Campaign-2012.aspx#gay

"Hispanics supported President Obama’s position that “health insurance organizations should be required to cover contraceptives” by a 68-11 margin."

Anonymous said...

"he's 31 years old, and he's got a Swedish mother and a Kurdish father?!?"

According to his blog Tino moved to Sweden as a child, not genetically Swedish.

Anonymous said...

I'll admit that, as a liberal, I highly enjoy watching the GOP's slow and ugly suicide. I do feel bad for conservatives of conscience (most of my family included), as they've been scammed by the open-borders Chamber of Commerce crowd for generations and seem intent on continuing.

What I don't see discussed is one of the most pressing problems with the increasingly naked appeals to white ethnic interests - Americans are mostly repulsed by this. Outside of the South, most of us, left and right, black and white, are rather proud of not being racists. If the GOP tries to appeal to narrow ethnic interests, not only will it continue to lose minority votes, but it will turn off moderates and permanency cement its status as the party of the Confederacy.

Anonymous said...

Great, now tackle why rich Jews and Asians are natural Democrats. This is racist colonialism and all these groups will vote regardless of their incomes to live off of whites. They will also vote to culturally and politically delegitimize whites (the real Americans) in order to legitimize that exploitation. It's straight up tribal politics and all the tap dancing about why, Why, WHY is a method of preventing a public airing of the idea that whites have real group interests that are naturally antagonistic to the group interests of non-whites, and vice-versa. In short, it's politically correct racism against whites. "Gauche" means, not even pro-white, but anything that even hints that "whiteness" has any right to a possible existence.

Anonymous said...

What I don't see discussed is one of the most pressing problems with the increasingly naked appeals to white ethnic interests - Americans are mostly repulsed by this

Appeals by who?

not only will it continue to lose minority votes

Good.

gumm said...

"Outside of the South, most of us, left and right, black and white, are rather proud of not being racists."

Yep, that's why white liberals in Ann Arbor are all flocking to Detroit to hug Negroes.
That's why Chicago is divided between North and South side.
That's why whites move out of St. Louis and live in suburbs.
That's why liberal blue states policies are 'Europeanizing' cities.

'Southern whites as racial bigots'
is pure projection. Northern whites are just as segregated and look for myriad ways to keep blacks at bay. But they don't wanna admit it and project all their dirty doings on white southerners.

If blacks in the South have it so bad and are so oppressed, why don't you white liberals call for a new great migration to help all them needy negroes. But it seems like blue state policies are making it difficult for businesses that move to red states, and that means blacks are going to red states too.

Democrats handle the black problem by buying off blacks. Democratic elites say, "Hey, Negroes, if you vote for us, we'll give you government jobs and more handouts, so please leave us alone."

I am proud of being a honest race-ist, and I despise moronic two-faced hypocrites like you.
Btw, the fall of GOP and white cons also means the fall of you. Do you really think blacks and browns are gonna be happy with crumbs forever? They settled for crumbs to form an alliance against white cons. But now that white cons are gone, you better fork over more of your hardearned wealth, dummy.

snapperhead soup said...

"In another survey, after the Democrat shift on this issue Pew finds: “More Latinos Now Favor Gay Marriage Than Oppose”, by a healthy 52-34 margin."

They are brainless twits. They watch too much TV.

Also, they are not so much supporting 'gay marriage' as 'gay marriage' but 'gay marriage' as symbolic cause against white conservative.

Causes have meaning in and of themselves OR in association to certain interests.
So, even though Red China was more communist than the Soviet Union, we were for siding with Mao since Red China became associated with 'anti-Soviet-ism'.
Similarly, though conservatives should be for anti-interventionism, they were for it because Bush was for it while liberals opposed it during Bush yrs. They were not for interventionism as interventionism but for interventionism as cause to piss off liberals.

This isn't about 'gay marriage' but 'anti-white-ness'. If the GOP were for 'gay marriage' and Dems were opposed to it, latinos would oppose it too.
It's the politics of values, not the true meaning of values.

Latinos see from the media that 'gays are our political allies against the gringo'. THAT is the main appeal of the issue.

gummgro said...

"Republicans also believe that Hispanics will vote for them because they are Catholic and Catholics are pro-life. But pro-life blacks don't vote Republican."

Blacks are more bro-life than pro-life.

snapperhead soup said...

If GOP changes drastically to win elections, it won't be the GOP anymore. Indeed, already it isn't. I mean just how did the party of Lincoln become the party of Robert E. Lee?

And same with Democratic Party. Sure, Dems won but the party used to be the party of Big Labor and Unions. Now, it's the party of globalism, 'free trade', Wall Street, outsourcing, elite Jews and gays neo-aristocrats, locking up tons of blacks in prison, gentrification, and financial deregulation.
Democratic Party won but as a perverted form of the Republican Party.

It's like the movie PERSONA where the two women change identities or some such.

Skeptical Economist said...

Notes on Hispanic support for gay marriage. See "Majority of Latinos Support State Recognition of Gay Marriage" (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/11/majority-of-latinos-support-state-recognition-of-gay-marriage/). Quote

"Hispanic voters were more likely than other voters to say they would approve if their state recognized same-sex marriage, according to preliminary exit poll results.
Nearly six-in-ten Latino voters (59%) said their state should legally recognize same-sex marriage while 32% said their state should not. But among all voters, about half (48%) favored legalization of gay marriage while nearly the same share said they would oppose it (47%).

Non-Hispanic whites were the most opposed to states legally sanctioning same-sex marriage (47% favored but 50% were opposed). Among blacks, half (52%) would support while 40% opposed state support for gay unions."

See also "Latinos reversing course, support gay marriage" (http://www.usatoday.com/story/onpolitics/2012/10/18/hispanics-gay-marriage-support-pew-poll/1641345/)

"More than half, or 52%, of Latinos say they support gay marriage in a new poll by the Pew Research Center. The general public supports gay marriage, 48%-44%."

A few more useful links on the subject might be http://www.religiondispatches.org/dispatches/candacechellew-hodge/5882/surprises_in_survey_of_hispanics_on_homosexuality_/ and http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2012/05/are-hispanics-that-socially-conservative/ (Razib Khan).

Anonymous said...

Hispanics want to conserve... their own. It would be a liberal mexican who votes for American exceptionalism, not the conservate mexican.

Enoch Powell said...

It is obvious that Hispanics, in general, are almost as ignorant and dysfunctional as Blacks. I've been around a LOT of both because of my work and where I live and except for the rare Hispanic who is entirely White, they are all pretty much permanent underclass material.

Those who insist that Hispanics are "natural conservatives" are probably, to a very large extent, engaging in the sort of magical thinking that accompanies a large fear load. It is a kind of denial of reality that is reassuring in the short term. It's akin to the denial that many terminally-ill people initially cling to.

And it is an excuse to stop the unpleasant opposition to Leftist Tyranny and surrender. It has long been a hallmark of the Left that, as a tactic, they subvert the eternal verities by redefining cowardice as courage, right as wrong, wrong as right, failure as success, sullen alienation as transcendent happiness, etc.

This kind of social pathology has infected everyone since the hippies took it mainstream. The GOP leadership is merely redefining one of their worst enemies as one of their potentially most valuable friends. It is, perhaps, a massive case of Stockholm Syndrome if you want to really pinpoint the type of denial.

The GOP leadership seems stupid, but really they are just too afraid to face reality.

For instance, Ron Unz and his "American Conservative" pals can't be so stupid as to really, in their heart of hearts, believe in open borders, amnesty and all the other happy clappy Leftist nonsense that they embrace and redefine as "Conservative Realism."

Their denial is their ivory tower. They will be very comfortable there until one day soon it simply vanishes.

jody said...

"Outside of the South, most of us, left and right, black and white, are rather proud of not being racists"

LOL.

back in the day, trolling meant something.

Anonymous said...

gumm said...
"Outside of the South, most of us, left and right, black and white, are rather proud of not being racists."

Yep, that's why white liberals in Ann Arbor are all flocking to Detroit to hug Negroes.

I think the bird really meant "proud of not SEEMING racist". Northerners can be racist under the table.

Skeptical Economist said...

"He's 31 years old, and he's got a Swedish mother and a Kurdish father?!?"

No. Both of his parents are from the Kurdish region of Iran. He grew up in Sweden and is a Swedish citizen (I think). He and his brother are active in public policy in Sweden and the United States.

Anonymous said...

Blacks are more bro-life than pro-life.

The ones that are against abortion see it as a genocidal plot against the black race. They could care less when other races do it.

Anonymous said...

"What I don't see discussed is one of the most pressing problems with the increasingly naked appeals to white ethnic interests - Americans are mostly repulsed by this. Outside of the South, most of us, left and right, black and white, are rather proud of not being racists. "

As a native Southerner I'm so used to lines like this it no longer bothers me. But here is a serious question(s): do you object to other races being racist? If not, why not? Why is being opposed to official discrimination against you, your children, and your kin "racist"?

Anonymous said...

To channel Whiskey, this whole election is one gigantic "shit test" that the GOP is failing. The GOP needs to demonstrate that they have a spine, and they are failing badly.

Talking heads: GOP, here's what you need to do to win our hearts! You need to declare an amnesty. You need to embrace gay marriage. You need to become the party of abortions for all and sundry. But most important of all, you must embrace the idea that you have inherited the original sin of racism due to your white skin, and constantly self-flagellate yourself according to the tenets of PC to achieve true redemption.

Only THEN will we go out with you. Will you do that for us? (Bats doe eyes at GOP.)

GOP: Aww shucks, really? Is that all you want? Ok then!

GOP then goes out and changes whole platform, salivating at the thought that all of these votes could be his!

GOP (to himself): This time, I'll win for sure! I've done everything they asked me to do! I'm looking forward to the American public finally going out with me!

Another four years roll by.

American public: Sorry GOP, I'm sorry we didn't vote for you. It's just that we needed a REAL LEADER, and, look, I know you are a really nice guy and all...

GOP: (tears well in eyes)

American public: Oh, I'm so sorry GOP! We can still be friends though! Give me your number, I'll call you up some day and we can hang out. What's your number?

GOP: um, 555-2382. You mean you'll really call me?

American Public: 555-BETA? Oh, that's so easy to remember, I won't even need to type that into my phone. Don't worry GOP, I surely WILL CALL YOU. Later now!

GOP: Awww, gee, thanks! When will you call me?

American Public: I'll call you REAL SOON NOW, I promise!

Several weeks pass by...

GOP to best friend Rove: Rove, I've got this public I really want to woo, but to be honest I'm not sure if I'm ever going to get anywhere.

Rove: What's the situation?

GOP: Well, she seems really nice, and at least I'm friends with her, she's even told me so! I've done everything she's asked, or at least what her friends the talking heads told me to do. But something seems wrong, it's just this feeling I can't shake.

Rove: Have you got several hundred million dollars? I feel like I could tell you the answer, if only you could pony up that money for me.

GOP: You mean it, honest! Sure thing, what's your bank account number, I'll send it to you right away. You won't change your mind, will you?

Rove: No, I'm always here to take your money, I promise. I'm a good friend like that. Just don't talk to that Sailer, he's mean and nasty and stuff. If you want to be seen to be some sort of big, gigantic asshole, you would listen to him. You don't want that, do you?

GOP: No, I pride myself on being a nice guy, liked by everyone!

Rove: Just send me the money then.

Anonymous said...

Obama gambled correctly when he reversed his opposition to homosexual marriage that blacks and Hispanics would sell their souls for government handouts.

Anonymous said...

But here is a serious question(s): do you object to other races being racist? If not, why not? Why is being opposed to official discrimination against you, your children, and your kin "racist"?

To the first question, of course I do. To the second, if you're referring to the laughably trivial reverse discrimination in place as the affirmative action regime... come on. I would prefer it to be limited to the descendants of slaves, and failing that, banned. But it's just such a trivial matter.

The mostly justified anger over a extraordinarily limited program, benefiting very few people and harming very few, can't be the raison d'etre of a national party. Affirmative action likely won't survive the next two Supreme Court terms anyway, and even if it does, so what? The best will still prosper and the worst will still fail. Is it as pervasive an injustice in hiring or school admissions as nepotism? Not by a long shot.

(If you're referring to something else by "official discrimination" please specify.)

The point I was trying to make is that way more important than being multi-racial and inclusive is appearing to be multi-racial and inclusive. For instance, even though he is and was a buffoon, Herman Cain's candidacy helped innoculate the Rs against spurious D charges of racism. Nice white ladies won't vote for racists. You guys look racist by whining about the blacks all the damn time.

Anonyia said...

"What I don't see discussed is one of the most pressing problems with the increasingly naked appeals to white ethnic interests - Americans are mostly repulsed by this. Outside of the South, most of us, left and right, black and white, are rather proud of not being racists. "

How are there currently ANY naked appeals to white ethnic interests? Do calls for enforcing the border count?

Good if you all are proud of not being racists. Then you can take on all of the minorities and pass legislation that you live next to them. Or are you only non-racist so long as you live in your homogenous enclaves?

And I hate to break it to you but the issue that turns off moderates is not racism but rather the religious wing of the GOP. Moderates are usually some of the more openly "racist" people around. Religious people can't be too racist without betraying some principles of their religion or losing potential converts. The less blinded people are by ideology of any stripe, the more they take basic observations about human nature into account.

Anonymous said...

But if hispanics are so pro-gay marriage how come it was voted down that last time in California? Given the Dems won the state. Who was responsible for that?

Assistant Village Idiot said...

I think they just mean that they go to church.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said: "The point I was trying to make is that way more important than being multi-racial and inclusive is appearing to be multi-racial and inclusive. For instance, even though he is and was a buffoon, Herman Cain's candidacy helped innoculate the Rs against spurious D charges of racism. Nice white ladies won't vote for racists. You guys look racist by whining about the blacks all the damn time."

Okay, assuming having Cain "innoculated" the GOP against the dreaded "R" word what did it do? Blacks still went 97% or whatever percent for the Empty Suit. And the GOP isn't whining about blacks all the time. Not sure who you meant by "you guys". I don't whine about blacks personally. I just avoid them as much as possible.

What I (and most people here) object to is the assumption that any disparate racial outcome is because of something we did. Blacks go to prison a lot? Our fault. Mexicans invade but feel unwelcome? Our fault. 400,000+ Americans die in WW2 fighting Germans and Japanese? Holocaust was our fault. Michelle Obama goes to Princeton, yet is aware that she doesn't belong there and the only reason she's there is because she's black? Our fault. If she didn't get into Princeton because she didn't belong, that would also have been our fault. At some point people come to the conclusion that nothing we do or say will help, so why bother?


Anonymous said...

if hispanics are so pro-gay marriage how come it was voted down that last time in California? Given the Dems won the state. Who was responsible for that?


Blacks. You could look it up.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...if hispanics are so pro-gay marriage how come it was voted down that last time in California? Given the Dems won the state. Who was responsible for that?

Blacks. You could look it up."

Very true. And watching libs figure out what to do when two of their sacred cows are fighting can be amusing.

Black turnout in CA was well above historical averages because of Obama. While in the booth voting for Barry they see on the ballot about gays getting married? So they think "that's ridiculous" and vote for Prop 8. Prop 8 passes and the gays are furious. But they can't complain about the homophobic blacks because blacks are immune from criticism. So they blamed it on the Mormons.

Anonymous said...

In 2008 on proposition 8 banning gay marriage:

“53 percent of Hispanics voted yes; 52% of the electorate voted yes.”

53 percent is hardly a tidal wave of social conservatism. Around 70 percent of California Blacks voted to ban gay marriage.

http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/2008/11/7/prop_8_and_the_hispanic_vote.htm

Since Obama has shifted on this issue, Hispanics have loyally followed him. In 2012 according to Exit Polls:

“Nearly six-in-ten Latino voters (59%) said their state should legally recognize same-sex marriage while 32% said their state should not.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/13/latinos-gay-marriage-exit-polls_n_2124515.html

Anonymous said...

So your feelings are hurt when professional race-baiters do what butters their bread? Why not just ignore them?

If you assume that the borders will not be closed under the Ds (a reasonable assumption) and assume that the Rs will finally stop lying and do something about it if elected this time (speculative, but I'll assume it arguendo), then you have got to get 65%+ of the white vote to win on the issue. I just don't think that's possible if you make any explicit racial appeals. That's all.

Maybe I'm too introspective here. As a white Southern Cal. liberal, I know that the only thing the Rs could ever do to earn my consideration would be to close the border. (Environmental and economic arguments are both persuasive to me on this.) Though uncontrolled immigration is a disaster for this country, Republican policies on everything else are insane, innumerate, medieval god-bothering idiocy.

Anonymous said...

The point I was trying to make is that way more important than being multi-racial and inclusive is appearing to be multi-racial and inclusive.

Lily-white blue townships sure are inclusive by setting up large minimum lot size requirements for housing to make it impossible for most NAMs to settle around them.

fondatori said...

"Less known is that increasingly liberal Hispanics now support Democrats on abortion, gay marriage and contraception."

In other words they watch a lot of TV, and what's worse, believe it. Great.

Fun said...

Anonyia said...

And I hate to break it to you but the issue that turns off moderates is not racism but rather the religious wing of the GOP. Moderates are usually some of the more openly "racist" people around. Religious people can't be too racist without betraying some principles of their religion or losing potential converts. The less blinded people are by ideology of any stripe, the more they take basic observations about human nature into account.


Moderates aren't enlightened independent-thinkers unbound by ideology. They are low-information voters who wait until the last minute then vote based on things like gut feelings, candidate charisma, or name recognition.

Anonymous said...

And I hate to break it to you but the issue that turns off moderates is not racism but rather the religious wing of the GOP

Let's dispense with the anodyne jargon of "turning off" moderates; fact is there is a lot of anti-religious sentiment about and Republicans were blindly biased toward believing it inconsequential. When Obama HHS decreed that henceforth St. Mary's of the Fields & Mercy General & the rest would be required to provide free Plan B to the local unmarried empowered not-necessarily-white women, the Dow Jones Republicans began crowing mightily about how he'd miscalculated, made a strategic blunder, blah blah. Actually Obama understood there was anti-religion anti-morality sentiment ready to be exploited. It didn't win the whole thing for him but it sure as hell didn't align any new recruits to the Republicans' side. The message going forward is that it doesn't cost you to diss high-n-mighty Bible-loving types, especially loathed by wealthy gays anyway.

Dai Alanye said...

Advising Republicans to welcome Hispanics after 2012 is like advising Augustus to welcome Germans after the Teutoberger Wald.

Anonymous said...

"if hispanics are so pro-gay marriage how come it was voted down that last time in California? Given the Dems won the state. Who was responsible for that?"

Blacks. You could look it up.

I did and found a lot of spin an disinfo. Basically, many people looking it up would get the impression that while the Dems took the state, somehow the evil homophobic white raciss sneaked up and perpetrated Prop 8.