November 19, 2012
My new VDARE.com article explores the Marriage Gap in the 2012 election results, which turned out about as huge as I predicted it would be a few weeks ago.
Could it be that the Marriage Gap is just a byproduct of some other gap, such as race, age, education, or homeownership?
My new piece has lots of graphs I created from data in the Reuters-Ipsos American Mosaic Polling Explorer, which lets you drill down into crosstabs to look at apples to apples comparisons. (Here's an explanation of the Reuters poll.)
The one above shows the best alternative hypothesis I can find in this demographic data: it's not marriage that influences people to vote Republican, it's homeownership. As you'll recall, that was the big idea of Karl Rove and George W. Bush for converting minorities and working class whites into Republican voters: make it easier for them to get home loans.
The basic idea wasn't ridiculous, but the implementation set off the Housing Bubble and Bust. But, when you drill down to make apples to apples comparisons, the Marriage Gap appears to be stronger in driving voting to the GOP as the Homeownership Gap. For example, in the above graph we're looking just at white women ages 35-44. Those who own their home vote Republican at rates 6.7 percentage points higher if single and 9.5 percentage points higher if married. But the Marriage Gap for SWF 35-44 renters is 15.0 points, and 17.8 points for SWF 35-44 homeowners.
Read the whole thing there.
By Steve Sailer on 11/19/2012