September 7, 2010

Whatever Happened to the Democrats' Youth / Minority Voter Juggernaut?

In my new VDARE.com column, I review the numbers on the likely sizable decline from 2008 to 2010 in young and minority and, especially young minority voters. We've been told over and over that the Arizona law will lead to a tidal wave of minorities voting Democratic, but current polling shows minorities bored with politics and not thinking about the November elections. I review various reasons and focus on one seldom articulated:
Appealing to white interests does not automatically alienate Hispanic and Asian voters.

When you think about common human psychology, this shouldn’t be surprising. For example, the press’s notion that Latino voters would respond to Republican criticism of legal and illegal immigration with relentless resentment, with endless spite, is just another example of projection by the media elite.

The reality is that most nonwhites can’t be bothered to feel as much racial hatred as the MSM demands they feel. They’ve got a life.

Instead, human beings generally try to associate themselves with what is being praised by society and disassociate themselves from what is being criticized. Being callow, young people are particularly impressionable. Despite all the romantic piffle about young rebels, the fact is that young people (especially the kind who are likely to vote) tend to be conformists. Hispanic and Asian youths are perhaps even more conformist than white and black youths.

When viewed from this perspective, the rise and fall of young Hispanic and Asian excitement over Obama’s party in 2008 to 2010 makes sense. Voting for a black candidate for President was not an act of youthful rebellion for Hispanics and Asians, but of conformity to the endlessly spelled-out wishes of the respectable institutions of society: the media, the schools, and even, so far anybody could tell, the Republican nominee.

Similarly, if the President of the United States praises illegal immigrants (as George W. Bush did, saying “You're going to come here if you're worth your salt, if you want to put food on the table for your families”), well, Viva La Raza!

But on the other hand, if white people continue to become ever so slightly less intimidated about publicly defending their own interests, well, Hispanic and Asian young people have more fun things to do with their time than worry about elections.

This implies a simple, effective strategy for the Republican Party—the opposite of that pursued by Bush, Rove, and McCain: Instead of appeasing professional minority activists and thus making them more powerful by letting them claim to be able to deliver goodies, stand up to them.

The GOP remains, overwhelmingly, a party whose most enthusiastic supporters are mature white men. Stop being ashamed of that fact. Show some self-respect. Stand up for the interests of your voters. Don’t let ethnic hustlers bully your constituents so much.

Read the whole thing at VDARE.com and comment upon it here.

48 comments:

jody said...

whatever happened to P Diddy and Vote or Die!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen_Change

of course it was a huge flop and south park skewered it.

there was no real analysis that the message actually was "Vote Democrat". it certainly wasn't about participation in general.

Has to be said...

It's easy to make fun of the GOP's Black and Hispanic outreach but you have to realize that it's not really directed at Blacks and Hispanics. It is directed at a critically important part of the electorate, which outnumbers the minority vote.

Any putative white coalition will have to include the non-Southern white suburban middle-class. It will have to include white suburban women (the "soccer moms"). In other words, it will have to include SWPL's. And the thing about the SWPL is, they like to think of themselves as color-blind and they get easily spooked by what they perceive as nastiness.

The GOP establishment are not idiots. They know that the the GOP is a white party. They know that the Republicans have no chance in hell to win the NAM vote. They know it better that you and I do because they have access to opinion polls (the real ones, not the media stunts that get reported.)But they need the SWPL vote. Which means, they need to be seen reaching out to minorities. And if that doesn't work (as they know it won't) well, they tried. Can't blame them.

Omnivore said...

"The GOP remains, overwhelmingly, a party whose most enthusiastic supporters are mature white men. Stop being ashamed of that fact. Show some self-respect. Stand up for the interests of your voters. Don’t let ethnic hustlers bully your constituents so much."

I think that's happening.

Oddly enough, the leader of this type of thinking is a gravel-voiced gal with a community college associates degree: Gov. Jan Brewer.

Oh, and the fat man (Christie, who reminds me of Jackie Gleason in REQUEIM FOR A HEAVYWEIGHT) isn't so bad either.

Anonymous said...

The trouble is Steve, (and I hate using these Marxist terms, but unfortunately they are true in this instance), is that the Reublican Party is the class enemy of blue-collar whites (they have nee right-royally shafted by Reagan/Bush open borders, free trade and tax cuts for the rich policies), and blue collar whites who vote Republican are damned fools who are only spiteing themselves, usually, unfortunately over the 'race' issue.
Witness how under Reublican policies how the supr-rich command the lion's share of American wealth whilst the blue-collar people see their wages erode year after year whilst rich Republicans gleefully pit them against 'coolie' labor both here (Reagan amnesty, bush attempted amnesty) and abroad (joe Sixpack has to fight for his crust with 1 billion $1 a day Chinese).
This is not to let the Democrats off the hook either - they are merely a rag-bag of special interest groups defined by their hostility toward white males.
"Two cheeks of the same ass" - is the fine old Ausralian saying that sums up this truly horrible Hobson's choice foisted on middle America.

Anonymous said...

It's when those minorities hit middle age that they begin demanding fully funded federal giveaway programs. Don't worry -- the Hispanic voter tsunami is inexorably marching toward the polls to vote themselves the cash in your wallet.

blank stare said...

Good advice, but too late. We're past the tipping point where blacks understand they can engage in violence with effective impunity. "Standing up for oneself" now will just be like Bill Maher slapping Mike Tyson. The pendulum won't swing back until things break down and blacks understand whites have to be in control just to get services delivered.

Camlost said...

Yes, and I can't help but notice that young black males are picking up their pants at a record pace, too.

Bruce Banned said...

Stand up for the interests of your voters
Steve, you really don't get what the Liberal Regime is all about, do you?
Political parties do not represent their voters.
The GOP is the Liberal Globalist Party, or upper class party, while the Democratic Party, or Socialist Globalist party is the tool of the upper middle/managerial class. The latter is a bit less bellicose than the former, but that's about the only difference between them. Both are socialist parties.
Neither party has any use for older middle-class Whites. If anything, they're their enemies. Although most of those fools still vote republican

Anonymous said...

You can expect that those who want to control the political process will keep trying until they find a fool-proof way of doing so.

Anonymous said...

All the enthusiastic average white voters will be in for a bitter surprise when the transfer power back to Republicans who still have no interest in them, and view their obligation as service to plutocrats and corporations.

Anonymous said...

Hispanic and Asian youths are perhaps even more conformist than white and black youths.

If you believe all that stuff about the Bering Strait land/ice bridge, then they came from the same gene pool.

I wonder if the genes for conformism are particularly persistent?

Assuming that such genes exist in the first place - maybe it's just a cultural emphasis on conformity which is persistent.

But the kind of [dutiful] slaughter that Mel Gibson depicts in Apocalypto could just as easily have come straight out of Chang & Halliday.

Omnivore said...

Good question.

Makes you wonder how important voting really is.

Because we all know that even in the event of a Republican tsunami, nothing will change.

Think of it: the entire g*ddamn house could become Republican, and nothing would change. Not even immigration would change.

White America is completely spooked. The fear that white Americans have towards non-whites is literally absolute.

Average Joe said...

I think one reason why Hispanics are so uninterested in politics is that they tend to be very self-centered. A U.S.-born Hispanic isn't going to worry too much about the problems faced by his illegal immigrant cousins. I think this helps to explain why the whole Arizona illegal immigrant law is such a non-issue for many Hispanics outside of Arizona.

OneSTDV said...

Here's my theory on why the youth vote went so strongly to Obama:

Obama and the Youth Vote

Anonymous said...

My theory about young voters is that they like to throw election-night victory parties. Presidential elections are massive events that occur, predictably, once every four years so they make a great excuse to throw a wild party. It's much harder get excited over hundreds of small races unless you're a real political junkie.

Anonymous said...

I think McCain/Hillary's timidity with the Rev. Wright affair has less to do with
their moral qualms than a sort of a calculus: The backlash against them for "racializing"

You see, White-America is not as freaked out by someone like Wright. They're
rather amused by him.

and also, the link between Obama and Wright is pretty tenuous despite your claims.



Mr. Sailer--an armchair pontificator are so much smarter than both campaigns.

They should've hired you.

You're a legend in your own mind.

Silver said...

Appealing to white interests does not automatically alienate Hispanic and Asian voters.

When you think about common human psychology, this shouldn’t be surprising.


A lot of this comes down to whether you believe that hispanics and asians all consider Republicans "racists" and those of them who vote republican do so because have realized that republicans aren't racist, or whether they continue to think republicans are "racists" but don't really care (because they agree on enough other issues). If you think the former you'll keep pandering in the belief that "it's working." If you believe the latter you'll focus more on white voters.

David Davenport said...

.. Stand up for the interests of your voters.

But the interests of the Republican Establishment are in conflict with the interests of non-cosmopolitan GOP voters.

headache said...

blank stare said...

"The pendulum won't swing back until things break down and blacks understand whites have to be in control just to get services delivered."


Happy waiting. In South Africa many blacks on the street have come to this realization afteronly 15 years of "liberty", but the black elite in charge rather leaves public posts unfilled than give jobs to whites. Nothing spikes them more than having to hire whites, even though any moron can see that services which functioned under white rule have now collapsed under black incompetence.
The black elite needs the system to skim off the bucks for their lavish lifestyles. They are not going to let anybody interfere in this scheme, whether it be for health reasons, security or even economic stability.

Anonymous said...

Kinda off-topic [although not by much], but over at Second City Cop, they're celebrating Daley's announcement that he won't run again.

And there is a strong unanimity of opinion which holds that Rahm Emanuel is Satan incarnate.

Whiskey said...

Yes, attending Rev. Wright's church for 20 years, calling him his spiritual mentor, titling his second book after a Wright Sermon, and saying he could no more disown Wright than he could the Black community, yeah, no connection to Obama Anon.

whites are mostly terrified of being called racist. But they are more terrified of being out of a job. And the consequences of being a racial minority (and hated one at that) when poor are far different than rich.

The great loss of income/money/status puts survival issues to the fore. If you want government goodies, you need to vote the straight White ticket. Which is pretty much the Tea Party revolt within the GOP capturing much (though not all) of the apparatus.

Anonymous said...

Pretty fickle, aren't they? Perhaps it has something to do with not seeing any results. They smoked the hope pipe and got no buzz, so they've gone back to the real stuff.

Anonymous said...

The pendulum won't swing back until things break down and blacks understand whites have to be in control just to get services delivered.
---

Sooner than you think. .. And services won't be showing up either. Better prep.

Anonymous said...

"The GOP remains, overwhelmingly, a party whose most enthusiastic supporters are mature white men. Stop being ashamed of that fact. Show some self-respect. Stand up for the interests of your voters. Don’t let ethnic hustlers bully your constituents so much."

And hopefully, a growing number of mature white women. I'll be interested in seeing the demographics of these midterms regarding gender, whether the % of women voting for Dems has plummeted since The One's election.

Qaz said...

Immigrants probably affect voting Mexicans more adversely than they affect other groups because they are direct competitors for their jobs and the targets of immigrant crime. Is there a chance that they understand this at some level even if they don't want to admit it? They should be torn between self interest and group interest, which psychologically, is most easily resolved by not voting (apathy). But without a vocal anti-immigration voice, they aren't presented with this conflict.

TGGP said...

I agree with Has to be said.

Increasing the GOP's fraction of the white vote may work for in the short-term and can win midterm elections, but in the long run the GOP seems screwed by demographics. Even if immigration was halted now. I suppose I think about that more since I'm younger than you, but I'd like you to put on your prognosticator hat (a la that Israeli foundation of Hari Seldons you profiled) and talk about how things will be decades from now.

Truth said...

""The GOP remains, overwhelmingly, a party whose most enthusiastic supporters are mature white men."

And one whose most enthusiastic leaders are mature GAY white men.

Anonymous said...

u know, in contrast to Seinfeld which is often about "nothing" but a display of Yuppie decadent urbanites----"The Simpsons" was actually about somehting: Family.

Marc B said...

"the Reublican Party is the class enemy of blue-collar whites (they have nee right-royally shafted by Reagan/Bush open borders, free trade and tax cuts for the rich policies), and blue collar whites who vote Republican are damned fools who are only spiteing themselves, usually, unfortunately over the 'race' issue."

And the globalist Clintonista Democrats supported all of the above plus post-modern identity politics favoring NAMS. No self-respecting, unashamed white can vote for democrats anymore, so poor whites vote republican because they think they will screw them less.

ATBOTL said...

"They know that the Republicans have no chance in hell to win the NAM vote."

Then why don't they pursue immigration restriction and instead try to throw open the borders to the entire world?

By the way, Asian voters having been trending strongly Democratic in recent elections.

Anonymous said...

"Two cheeks of the same ass" - is the fine old Ausralian saying that sums up this truly horrible Hobson's choice foisted on middle America.

Then that should be "Two cheeks of the same arse"

Big bill said...

Sean Combs' "Citizen Change" organization hasn't done much.

Ron Burkle, the grocery king, gave them a quarter of a million dollars. Their single biggest donation. Tikkun olam.

Anonymous said...

By the way, Asian voters having been trending strongly Democratic in recent elections.

Right - that gets back to the conformism [is it genetic or cultural or both?] that I was talking about earlier.

One of my earliest brushes with what we might now call "the analysis of human behavior from the HBD perspective" was when I learned - maybe a decade [15 years?] ago - that the children & grandchildren of both the Vietnamese boat people [in Orange County, CA] & the Cuban boat people [in Dade County, FL], were trending strongly away from the GOP and towards the DEMs.

If the memory of monstrous Bolshevik democidal slaughter can be swept away in a mere generation of exposure to Jewish television and Jewish newspapers and Jewish universities, then we're obviously dealing with folks who don't have much in the way of a cultural/moral spine [or immune system - whether or not it's genetic in nature].

There's a reason that Bolshevism found a home in places like China and North Korea and Vietnam [and very nearly in Spain].

Big bill said...

@blank stare:

"The pendulum won't swing back until things break down and blacks understand whites have to be in control just to get services delivered."

Sorry. That will never happen. No one wants to lose power in exchange for dominance by another people.

Rhodesian blacks would rather vote for Mugabe and be brutalized and murdered than elect a white man.

South Africa blacks would rather vote for the ANC and the WaBenzi and watch the entire infrastructure of roads, water, sewer, police and hospitals crumble away.

They would like, I suppose, some decrepit middle ground in which they retain political control with a certain inevitable decrepitude rather than white management. Se, e.g., Detroit, Camden, East St. Louis, etc.

Curvy said...

"The GOP establishment are not idiots. They know that the the GOP is a white party."

Yeah, I used to think that, too. I thought surely the gibbering idiocy was just a ploy to make the Dems overconfident. There must be SOMEBODY in the organization in charge with a brilliant plan, and the good polling to think it'll work.

But then I saw them keep Ron Paul out of the debates. They wouldn't even let him on stage.

No, it's not a grand strategy to capture the swing SWPLs' vote.
It ain't even incompetence. It's unmitigated treason. They've plumb sold out.

Paul Mendez said...

blank stare said...

"The pendulum won't swing back until things break down and blacks understand whites have to be in control just to get services delivered."

Headache said...

Happy waiting. In South Africa many blacks on the street have come to this realization after only 15 years of "liberty", but the black elite in charge rather leaves public posts unfilled than give jobs to whites.

234 years (or so) is a record run for a constitutional republic. I'm sure our Founding Fathers would be astounded at what they achieved.

But all good things come to an end. The US is devolving into "Brazil with Snow" right before our eyes. This wouldn't be such a bad thing, except the entire globe is dependent on the US acting as a charitable, hard-working, big-spending White Missionary of Progress.

Without a US that can buy its stuff, solve its problems and keep the peace, the world will descend into another Dark Age. Probably for a century or more. But that's fine, since a little natural selection never hurt anyone. Throw in "climate change" (whatever you think that is) and eventually a smaller, smarter world population will be ready for the next Renaissance.

Too bad we'll all miss it.

airtommy said...

Once again Steve and the entire comment community pretends that Obama hasn't alienated his voter base with his right-wing actions. Democrats turned out en masse because they wanted less war than Bush, better environmentalism, and government health care for the poor. Instead Obama gave them more war, the same insider fat cats pretending to regulate polluters (plus government PR assistance to help BP cover up the effects of the oil spill), and laws requiring people to sign up with rapacious private health insurance company.

No, none of this has anything to do with liberal voter disaffection. It's all because leftists are so much more frivolous and immature than sober, responsible conservatives.

Anonymous said...

Camlost said...

Yes, and I can't help but notice that young black males are picking up their pants at a record pace, too.

I'd like to see them in tight 1980s jeans.

David said...

>The reality is that most nonwhites can't be bothered to feel as much racial hatred as the MSM demands they feel. They've got a life.<

Maybe not, but they certainly feel some amount, as I have learned over and over. If anyone assumes they feel none, he's wrong.

Marc B said...

"Then why don't they pursue immigration restriction and instead try to throw open the borders to the
entire world?"

Republicans are still beholden to their corporate masters, the Eastern Establishment, and RNC Minority Outreach. They only talk a good game when their offices get flooded by their constituents communiques or during an election year. Until the border is secured and amnesty is off the table, why worry about legal immigration? The real test is if they will start drafting bills cutting illegals access to social services when they become the majority, but I'm not holding my breath. Both parties are for open borders, so it's a almost moot point for white voters.

"By the way, Asian voters having been trending strongly Democratic in recent elections."

I know, but they are still a relatively small voting bloc and are excluded from many of the affirmative action programs that the NAMS take advantage of. They also place little proportionate burden on social services, so Asian votes are not being purchased with promises of handouts. Perhaps Asians will get sick of subsidizing lazy NAM's with their tax dollars and votes in the future.

Neither party is worth a crap, but at least most republicans don't form voting coalitions with anti-white grievance groups and vote for affirmative action programs, unlike democrats. Poor whites are generally opposed to progressive taxation, and are not looking to soak the rich. They, unlike Karl Marx, have a sense of fair play, and generally feel everybody should be taxed at the same rate.

corvinus said...

"They know that the Republicans have no chance in hell to win the NAM vote."

Then why don't they pursue immigration restriction and instead try to throw open the borders to the entire world?


One reason for the surprising vehemence of the Tea Party insurgency in the GOP. The old GOP Establishment is pro-immigration, and they've suffered heavy casualties due to this (Specter, Bennett, Murkowski). Whether Amnesty McCain counts as a casualty (i.e., whether he really will turn hard-right on immigration once back in office) remains to be seen.

By the way, Asian voters having been trending strongly Democratic in recent elections.

My impression is that Asians and Hispanics both vote Dem over GOP about 2:1.

And one whose most enthusiastic leaders are mature GAY white men.

The bisexuals in the GOP Establishment also seem to be mostly pro-immigration, I might add.

pzed said...

"By the way, Asian voters having been trending strongly Democratic in recent elections."

it's hard not to notice how white the republican party and their interests are, even for a group who might otherwise gravitate toward republicans.

but what do u white conservatives care about the asian vote anyways? asian's are only 4% of the population and don't vote as much as other groups.

Curvy said...

"Yes, and I can't help but notice that young black males are picking up their pants at a record pace, too.

I'd like to see them in tight 1980s jeans."

Nah. The falling-down of Blacks' thugpants gives the cops an advantage when pursuing them.

l said...

Democrats have really skrooed the pooch:

"For the first time since 1930, more Republican voters showed up to vote in statewide primaries this year than Democrats ..."

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2010/09/american-university-expert-democratic-turnout-lowest-in-80-years/1?loc=interstitialskip

David Davenport said...

... but in the long run the GOP seems screwed by demographics. Even if immigration was halted now.

Why do you assume that present demographic trends cannot be reversed?

Truth said...

"I'd like to see them in tight 1980s jeans."

Actually, it's been tried, but independent surveys have proven that wearing skinny jeans in the hood kind of leaves a bad first impression.

Tanstaafl said...

The GOP remains, overwhelmingly, a party whose most enthusiastic supporters are mature white men. Stop being ashamed of that fact. Show some self-respect. Stand up for the interests of your voters. Don’t let ethnic hustlers bully your constituents so much.

They stand up for the interests of their bosses, the super-rich ethnic hustlers. Their true constituency is this semi-visible, totally unaccountable plutocracy, who also happen to own, among other things, the MSM you notice projecting racial hatred.

Shame? The plutocrats and their lickspittles have only loathing and contempt for Whites, no matter how we vote.

David said...

>I'd like to see them [black males] in tight 1980s jeans.<

LOL

Unless your job is writing the platform of the Log Cabin Republicans, you have missed your calling.