January 18, 2010

Why is the Massachusetts Senate race even close?

The U.S. Senate race to fill Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts isn't turning out to be the Democratic walk-over that you would expect in that state.

A reader wonders how much of the Democrats' problems in Massachusetts goes back to last summer's Gatesgate, in which President Obama spoke out against the Cambridge, MA police department, but then was forced into that humiliating Beer Summit because police officer James Crowley stood his ground?

Interestingly, the husband of the Democratic candidate in this race, state attorney general Martha Coakley, is a retired Cambridge police officer, yet the Cambridge police union leadership voted 11-2 to endorse the Republican candidate.

Of course, having Deval Patrick, David Axelrod's Barack Obama 1.0, as governor of Massachusetts for the last three years can't have helped the Democrats, either.

My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

47 comments:

Anonymous said...

OK, this may attract infiltration from the anti-conspiracy theory police (I wish I were joking), but she's running such an awful campaign that I *almost* suspect that she's throwing it or at least has a fragger in her camp, and so are others.

Speaking of women in the senate, whaddaya think about Carly Fiorina as your next Senator Steve-O? Not my cup of tea, but compared to that hag Levy-Boxer, she's the stone cold nuts.

Also, I'd like to see some statistical analysis of female congressmen. I guess there are some good ones, though I can't think of any, but there sure are some bad ones and I'm at a loss to name one who is an authentic conservative. If we could make a statistical case against female congressmen that could save taxpayers billions.

Jonathan said...

I think that women in general favor a more statist agenda than men. It's natural for them to view the government as a nurturer and protector. It's no coincidence that leftist policies started getting traction shortly after women got the vote.

Anonymous said...

Maybe it's not just Hispanics who can pull off a "reconquista" of sorts.

Dahlia said...

I had not been paying attention to this race until a couple days ago. I know only two things about this race:

Scott Brown was naked in a Cosmo spread when he was 22 and voted America's Sexiest Man.

Martha Coakley kept an innocent man, Gerald Amirault, in jail for two years and ten months longer than he otherwise should have been. The Daycare sex abuse hysteria that had swept the nation had been revealed as the witch trials they were about a decade later, but Coakley still believed this particular man was guilty, though his sister had been let out of jail (as had many others in similar cases in the U.S.). Perhaps the Mass. constituents intuit just how bad her judgement is?

This wiki entry helps put that case in context of the larger phenomenon in the country (and as it grew larger, internationally) at that time:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Day_care_sex_abuse_hysteria

Anonymous said...

It probably doesn't hurt Scott Brown's cause that he's a fairly handsome fellow.

When it comes to the voting booth, women have been known to think with their, ah, well, birth canals.

Mr. Anon said...

"Why is the Massachusetts Senate race even close?"

I noticed that just prior to the Senate vote on Obamacare, the press was full of stories along the lines of it all being very, very iffy, full of quotes by anonymous insiders saying that it could very well falter.

Then it passed by a 60/40 vote on Christmas Eve.

I think the press was deliberately talking down Obamacare's chances in order to suppress any letter-writing/E-mail campaign to Congress opposed to it.

I would guess that this isn't happening here. That may work for legislation under consideration by Congress, but probably doesn't work so well in elections, where you are as likely to demoralize your own side as to give the other side a sense of false confidence.

Anonymous said...

The economy.

anony-mouse said...

If Brown wins, combined with the GOP Virginia victory, its obvious that what the GOP needs to do is to breed a race of new Don Draper-like candidates.

Flowing Magma said...

The race is close because independents are avalanching away from the Massachussetts Old Guard and even liberal voters are already tired of the Obama Show. After only a year.

This latest puppet, Barry aka Barack, is a front man for the banksters and the public is *gradually* waking up to the bitter reality of modern Deep State (Inner Party) politics in a post-Constitutional United States of America. People are getting pissed because in a Deep State controlled society EVERYONE gets the shaft.

The voters are waking up. The way things are going we will have a National Breath Tax and body scanners at every highway onramp in another ten years. The National Security State is emerging and people are waking up.

In the past The Powers That Be refused to let us inspect all of Bush's military records. Today The Powers That Be won't even let us inspect Obama's college records. Or his birth certificate. By extrapolating this trend toward non-disclosure I think we can deduce that in the future The Powers That Be won't let us know our president's name or see his photo.

The public is *gradually* waking up.

Anonymous said...

Jonathon said:

Yup, yup, and yup. And ever notice how nearly all AGW skeptics are men? I'll go one further and say that the powers that be just wouldn't have even tried that AGW crap with an all male electorate. Now, if you'll excuse me, I gotta split before some jackass calls me a beta for daring to criticize the babez.

Anonymous said...

wikipedia is awesome because you can get the skinny on anyone new on your radar instantly. How did we ever live without it? Anyhoo, I did my diligence on Brown...pretty impressive cat. Only red flag is that as a guy once voted america's sexiest man by Cosmo one wonders how many babes he has or had on the go. At least they're women, though, unlike seemingly half of the lovers of GOP men these days.

Anonymous said...

There sure do seem to be an awful lot of cops and other blue collar stiffs on the Scott Brown bandwagon.

In addition to the Gates mess [and the desire to stop Obamacare], surely they despise a pro-criminal D.A. like Coakley.

Anonymous said...

Can it be that the folks in MA have gotten a taste of Obama-care in its state version, and have decided to give the whole project the heave-ho?

DCThrowback said...

@ Jonathan - Ann Coulter has argued that for years, sometimes tongue in cheek, but others not so much.

as said...

OMG, he was sooooooooo hot!

He's not bad now either.

Jeff said...

I think that Deval Patrick is better described as the beta version of Barack Obama.

Anonymous said...

"I think that women in general favor a more statist agenda than men. It's natural for them to view the government as a nurturer and protector."

How do you explain Maggie Thatcher? True, she came to power in a parliamentary system, but....I think it could happen here if only America would produce a Maggie.

Anonymous said...

There are lots of Reagan Dems in Massachusetts. Along with the indies (many of whom are college educated and w/out jobs) they are as sick and tired of the arrogance displayed by Obama, Pelosi, Reid as people elsewhere are.

As the polls grew more and more anti-Obamacare, the triumvirate grew more and more arrogant about passing it anyway and that, my friend, along with the price tags for everything and the 10% unemployment is a recipe for "Throw the in's out."

Bottom line--although warned, most Obama voters didn't believe the tag of "just another Chicago politician." Now they know he is.

Anonymous said...

That's funny because Gatesgate just crossed my mind today. Another issue going on is that Massachusetts Dems changed the Senate replacement rules - again - in order to get a Democratic senator in that seat asap. They had changed them before in order to keep John Kerry's seat from getting filled by Mitt Romney.

Anonymous said...

"I *almost* suspect that she's throwing it or at least has a fragger in her camp, and so are others."

The seat will be up again in 2012, Yes? Who was Coakley's competition in the Dem primary?

Anonymous said...

"Don't let a crisis go to waste."

Obama certainly isn't wasting any opportunity to use Haiti to guilt-bait white people and distract the nation from the mess he's doing as president.

Statsaholic said...

Scott Brown's daughters are also complete foxes:

http://statsaholic.blogspot.com/2010/01/hasnt-this-family-ever-heard-of.html

Otis the Sweaty said...

"The seat will be up again in 2012, Yes? Who was Coakley's competition in the Dem primary?"


Coakley had a few competitors in the primary, but the main competition was a very liberal guy with a really Italian sounding last name that I can't remember. But since Democratic primaries are pure identity politics, she got the nod cause she is a woman.

From what I can gather, the Italian fella would have won.

Anonymous said...

(Cliff Arroyo)

This whole thing reminds me of both:

Hillary vs Obama, where the press fell in love with the personable, photogenic young guy and dumped the old broad that no one liked in the first place. How'd that work out for us again?

Obama vs McCain, where I had the impression that McCain was doing everything he could to lose (but still put in a decent showing).

She's either

a)throwing the race on purpose for some reason and not even putting in a decent show (maybe the national dems really don't want healthcare to pass and want to blame the republicans?)

b) got deep sabotage going on in her camp.

c) just dumb as a rock.

THOR said...

MATRIARCHY BLOWS

George said...

A prediction: if Brown wins by a slight margin the Dems will demand a "recount" that will favour Coakley a la Franken...

bbartlog said...

People who think this is just about voters getting tired of Obama should consider that Obama is still polling well. As for Coakley, her history of ambition makes it unlikely that she's throwing the race. She just isn't very good at this game. She might still win, though.

OhioStater said...

I'm not sure where I heard this, but an operative pointed out Scott Brown was Protestant, not Catholic.

I thought the Democrats were about uniting us.

Dahlia said...

"Anyhoo, I did my diligence on Brown...pretty impressive cat. Only red flag is that as a guy once voted america's sexiest man by Cosmo one wonders how many babes he has or had on the go. At least they're women, though, unlike seemingly half of the lovers of GOP men these days."

Was reading my usual blogs and found that Brown has done a lot of commercials with his two teenage daughters. I presume this is to innoculate himself from getting the "cad" label and cement "dad" in voters' minds as a reaction to that layout (it's been circulating on the web for two years beginning with Wonkette).

Gene Berman said...

First Anonymous:

See Jonathan (immediately following yours) for a good thumbnail explanation.

It's not so much that women are "statist" in their views as that they see the state, essentially (and quite incorrectly) as a force for nurture and culture.

Should we disenfranchise women because they are biased in that direction? It's no different than disenfranchising the propertyless or poor because they're led toward redistribution. Or the "left side" of the IQ distribution because they're stupid.

Humans err--and often. And it's not so much the errors of the led that are dispositive but the errors (or erroneous opinion and information) spread by the cognitive elites of almost every persuasion (and most particularly by those of greatest influence in the public education apparatus and on public culture).

The plain case is that there's no easy answer as to how to get all those among the benighted (women,
blacks, Jews, the too young to know better, the working poor, etc.) to "shape up and fly right."

It is a moot point (and one I'll leave to the anarcho-libertarians) whether the state is the enemy or not: what is certain is that the core destructive activities of the state can be summed in the single term: socialism. And, further, that socialism and socialist policies have penetrated so deeply into the fabric of society, having won, with variation, such widespread acceptance throughout the major political platforms, that only monumental (and concerted) effort can possibly reverse the established trend of the past 150 years (toward greater state involvement in and authority over every aspect of human life and activity).

No matter whether particular animus is toward exorbitant taxes, failed education, out-of-control immigration, unemployment, crime,
increasing public licentiousness,
affirmative action, paralytic environmentalism, decreased public civility,insufficient patriotism, etc., such animus will never be successful to either appreciable or lasting extent until it has been focused on reducing the core socialism. It's a paradox, indeed, that reduction in socialism would be of enormous benefit to as many as 90% of the population yet the socialistic principless garner support of at least 80% of the voting electorate.

I can't change it; but I can decribe it.

Anonymous said...

The last commenter got it right-Coakley is as dumb as a rock:

About Republican and Red Sox Hero Curt Schilling "Everyone knows he's a Yankees fan".

About why she wasn't involved in the same sort of retail campaigning as Brown "What do you want me to do, stand outside Fenway Park shaking hands? In the cold?"

Dahlia, you forget the most heinous part of the Fells Acres Daycare case. The poor mother, Violet, was a part of the case and esentially spent the rest of her life in prison.

It's only justice that Coakley may be done in by the Fells Acres case, where one of the children was anally raped with a butcher knife (leaving no injuries) and by another case where she refused to indict a politically-connected cop who raped his 2-year old niece with a hot curling iron!

Otis, the Italian guy, Steve Pagliuca, is a former financial guy from Bain Capital, Mitt Romney's old firm. He's now a co-owner of the Boston Celtics. He brought nothing to the campaign other than the desire to waste $30 million.

Anon, Brown sleeps with his wife, a very attractive MILF of a TV reporter, Gail Huff. They have 2 beautiful college-age daughters, one of whom was a semifinalist on American Idol and is now a basketball player at Boston College (Brown himself was known as Downtown Scottie Brown as a player at Wakefield High). Brown is also a Lt. Col. in the Army Reserve.

Hey, why would you vote for this guy over an AG who left it to the US attorney to indict our last THREE House speakers, right?

The Democrats expected a coronation, not an election. They forgot that the elctorate here is 35% Democrat, 14% Republican--and 51% Unenrolled, our version of independent. An empty skirt like Coakley didn't expect a fight.

Brutus

jimbo said...

"the Italian fella would have won."

His name is Capuano. He's a real italian scrapper - he wouldn't have just sat down after the primary and let Brown get this close.

Coakley won the primary because no one was paying attention to it except for the the middle-aged women that were still smarting about Hillary losing. Capuano just couldn't get out enough of a vote to overcome the red hat brigade.

Otis the Sweaty said...

"Coakley won the primary because no one was paying attention to it except for the the middle-aged women that were still smarting about Hillary losing. Capuano just couldn't get out enough of a vote to overcome the red hat brigade."


This is the future of the Democratic party. The Dems have devolved into pure, 100% identity politics. I am confident that the Democrats will never again nominate a white male for the Presidency.

For years, liberals said demographics would destroy the Republican party. It looks like demographics will destroy the Democrats first.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure where I heard this, but an operative pointed out Scott Brown was Protestant, not Catholic.

That was Tip O'Neill's boy, Chris Matthews, on MSNBC.

Svigor said...

By extrapolating this trend toward non-disclosure I think we can deduce that in the future The Powers That Be won't let us know our president's name or see his photo.

You have a good, imaginative sense of humor, friend. That falls right into the "funny because it has a big grain of truth in it" category. One can almost see that happening, candidates and presidents having their identities "protected" for "reasons of national security."

Svigor said...

How do you explain Maggie Thatcher? True, she came to power in a parliamentary system, but....I think it could happen here if only America would produce a Maggie.

The same way I explain my black friend who deserves to be at Harvard?

Svigor said...

Should we disenfranchise women because they are biased in that direction? It's no different than disenfranchising the propertyless or poor because they're led toward redistribution. Or the "left side" of the IQ distribution because they're stupid.

Er, what's your point again?

Dutch Boy said...

The Amirault case: an abominable miscarriage of justice. This harridan Coakley went the extra mile and then some to keep those people in jail. She ought to be tarred and feathered rather than senator.

Dahlia said...

"Dahlia, you forget the most heinous part of the Fells Acres Daycare case. The poor mother, Violet, was a part of the case and essentially spent the rest of her life in prison."

She died of cancer in prison where she had served eight years if I remember correctly.

Coakley's judgement in this case would be akin to when Governor Phips started releasing all the accused "witches" from jail in Salem and Judge Hathorne ran up to the jail door with one person remaining, barred it shut, and said, "Now this one really is a witch!"

All you need to know about her. All the silly gaffes and views on religious freedom should be no surprise if you know that one thing about her.

Dahlia said...

One last thing to share because it reminds me of two themes discussed here at Steve's and it was just released and discovered.
1. Others here have brought up how such an incompetent woman won the Mass. Dem. primary.

2. Steve's speculated before about white male talent leaving the Dems and thereby the Dems becoming weakened.

Which bring me to this: The Coakley campaign alleged voter fraud today and released the following memo. The only problem is that they forgot to update this draft and it is dated yesterday, January 18. ROTFLOL!!
http://pajamasmedia.com/eddriscoll/files/2010/01/Coakley_pre-dated_press-release-1-18-10.jpg

Truth said...

"Scott Brown's daughters are also complete foxes:"

Hey Sport, 1976 just called, it said it wants it's ebonics back.

Ivy League Bastard said...

The embarrassment to Coakley from the Cambridge patrolmen's endorsement of her opponent is even worse than Steve indicates. Martha spent most of the 1990's as a prosecutor working in Cambridge, at the Middlesex County court house. The Cambridge police officers would be particularly familiar with her and her work.

If this was, in fact, an endorsement based on health care and bargaining issues, it is nonetheless very damning that she could not gather more than two symbolic votes of support once it became clear that Brown was a lock for the endorsement.

Anonymous said...

You guys are forgetting something--in times of relative peace and relative prosperity, personalities matter more than anything else in a race. Yes, the boring, matronly-looking attorney general versus a great-looking, friendly, casual guy like Brown would be at a distinct disadvantage under those circumstances.

However, these are not times of peace and certainly not times of prosperity. People began paying attention to the polar opposite policy positions of these two because they were discontented with the direction of the country.

Brown's candidacy was helped tremendously by bloggers like the guy at Red State. The video "Massachusetts Miracle" went viral. Google it and take a look at it. Something like that can't be effective at all unless there is a great deal of unrest to begin with.

It was the issues that people were paying attention to--the triumvirate of Obama, Reid, and Pelosi are, at the very least, tone-deaf, at the most, the leaders of, as Mark Levin terms it, "a soft tyranny.

I laughed when Wash Post's Sally Quinn yesterday tried to explain Brown's surge in the polls with a simple, "He's a hunk."

Actually, yes, he is a hunk. But, he had always been clear, crystal clear, never ambiguous about his positions on the health care bill (both the House and Senate versions), the backroom deals struck for those health care bills, the Obama-Holder policy on allowing terrorists to be tried in the civil courts, Stimulus and probable stimulus 2.

So, yes, while he was out there hustling as she wasn't, and while voters noted that, they were very aware of the monumental substantive differences between the two.

In short, the voters were already pissed, and one day they looked up and saw they had someone who'd carry that message, and it didn't hurt that he was attractive too.

Anonymous said...

con't

When you see people saying they generally like Obama, be very circumspect about what that means. For some, it means they haven't yet found him arrogant or haughty, just a bit cool, not the "cool" that means "hip." The "cool" that borders on cold, detached. They aren't ready to state they dislike him. That's customary. Voters usually give the guy they have voted for 12-18 months before being willing to admit to themselves that they might have made a mistake or that they just don't like the guy. It usually takes longer to admit it to others.

The second factor involves race. Whites will not readily say they don't "like" him. Instead, they will say they dislike his policies, but given time, even that will change. I have already heard from many that he is "aloof" but I'll bet that were they to be polled, they'd not state that---yet.

Last point--I don't think anything made Americans more angry than to have been derided by being called "astro-turfers" and "teabaggers" and "Nazis" when all they did was go to town meetings to ask questions. For most, it was the first time they had attended a meeting with their elected rep, and quite frankly, they were rather proud of themselves for having gotten involved so when they watched their nightly news and saw the likes of Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank calling them names, they were stunned. People who'd never in their lives broken a law were derided by supposed "leaders" as either irrelevant crazies or as selfish citizens. Many of them were retirees. Retirees are already vulnerable emotionally and to have been treated as they were was the ultimate insult. Those reps might just as well as told them, "You are old and irrelevant."

Their middle age children remember how their parents were treated and so do their grandchildren who have been advised that they will bear the burden of worrying about how to pay for all these deficits.

It was the perfect storm, and that storm will land elsewhere in the next year. For the life of me, I just don't understand why Dems feel they "have to pass" something, that "it's better to pass something than nothing," which is what Emmanuel and Obama tell them. I don't know why they'd go off a cliff for the Shrinking Obama.

I can't wait for Boxer to get hers.

Svigor said...

Hey Sport, 1976 just called, it said it wants it's ebonics back.

Hey, on your way back tell the brothers using "playa" that the 70s want their honkebonics back. I hear Stevie Nicks is pissed.

Anonymous said...

"Hey Sport, 1976 just called, it said it wants it's ebonics back."

Truth, "it's" is short for "it is". The possessive pronoun has no apostrophe.

Anonymous said...

The Fells Acres / Amirault case and nearly all other "Satanic Panics" were an active campaign of persecution of white males. Democrats such as Coakley were involved just as much as the Religious Right.

The medieval witch burnings targeted older women, usually propertied widows. The SP typically victimized young white males - independent thinkers - in non-traditional careers usually child care related.

IIRC, feminists were heavily involved in prosecuting Satanic Ritual Abuse cases (but never Christian abuse). You would think that feminists would welcome males into traditional female roles - but instead they feared any contact between men and children.