November 14, 2009

Toby Gerhart Update

Stanford 55
#9 USC 21

Five weeks ago I wrote about running back Toby Gerhart for Taki's Magazine. I don't really know much about any particular sport anymore, so I figured regression toward the mean would set in, but instead, Gerhart has just gotten better. Today, he rushed for 178 yards on 29 carries for 3 touchdowns against USC in front of 90,000 at the LA Memorial Coliseum. Through ten games of 2009, he has 1395 yards and 19 touchdowns (third and second in the country, respectively) on 262 carries.

Stanford has now upset two Top 10 teams in a row, scoring over 50 points against each, with Gerhart rushing for 401 yards and six touchdowns in those two games. Stanford is now 7-3, and 6-2 in the tough Pac-10.

His yards per carry average is an unspectacular 5.3, but has any offensive skill position player been more valuable to his team this year?

My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

33 comments:

Anonymous said...

Steve,

You're SoCal. Stanford is NoCal. Why all the boosterism?

Is this just a fascinating dog-bites-man HBD story, or does your son have an inside to tall tree city?

As a Cal fan, I say well done and congrats to Stanford.

Anonymous said...

What's his GPA?

Michael said...

How about Andrew Luck? As a fellow Houston Stratford alum, he makes me mighty proud.

Wish my Longhorns would have signed him.

Steve Sailer said...

Yes, the maturation of Andrew Luck in the middle of the season has turned Stanford from a one-trick pony into an offensive powerhouse.

The Bear said...

His yards per carry average is an unspectacular 5.3, but has any offensive skill position player been more valuable to his team this year?

Stanford lost to a bad Wake Forest team (3 - 7 on the season). TG ran for 80 yards and no touchdowns. Clemson clobbered Wake and C. J. Spiller ran for over a hundred yards and scored two touchdowns. Today Spiller scored a touchdown rushing, passing, and receiving.

But stats are for losers. Neither player is more valuable than Tim Tebow, whose Florida Gators have won 20 straight games while playing in the premier conference in college football.

All that said, I love watching TG play today, and I especially enjoyed Stanford going for 2 points just to rub in the face of SoCal.

Novaseeker said...

It's both Luck and Gerhart, really. And also some unraveling over at Southern Cal. Still ... Gerhart is making his case. He has two more games -- Cal and ND, both in Palo Alto. Let's see what happens.

Svigor said...

Yards per carry don't mean as much when you're getting 140 yards per game. On the other hand, I never followed college ball so the numbers don't mean as much to me.

Anonymous said...

It was either ESPN or CBS that said TG is the nation's leading rusher tonight. CBS' sportsline.com picked TG as Stanford's player of the game and there is Heisman talk about him on the site.

Still, the game recap web page just shows a black outline of TG in the player of the game section.

Middletown Girl said...

Maybe his great grand father was half-black.

Anonymous said...

Gerhart had less than 20 carries in the loss against Wake Forest and Luck was still maturing as a qb, Gerhart is crucial to Stanford's success

Truth said...

If the Heisman is an MVP trophy, why not Ricky Dobbs?

Steve Sailer said...

Dobbs, the Navy QB, has rushed for 22 touchdowns.

Why not consider him?

Black Sea said...

I realize that this is off topic, but I'm going to post it here; at least it's sports related.

I just read the NY Times coverage of the Pacquiao -- Cotto welterweight bout. The writer, Greg Bishop, describes Pacquio's career, at length, in the past tense, as if Pacquiao were retired, or dead:

"Along the way, Pacquiao collected belts, from lightweight to junior welterweight and every belt in between. He entered Henry Armstrong territory, earning comparisons to the boxer who won three titles in 10 months in 1937 when there were only eight divisions.

Pacquiao was more than just a boxer. He became an international superstar, a singer with albums that twice went platinum, an actor with so much money he made his own movies."

He then throws out this stunner:

"He knew Pacquiao would be giving away at least 10 pounds by fight time, giving away an inch and a half in height and two inches in weight."

Huh?

I guess when the Times underwent their latest round of layoffs, they dismissed all the editors. Aparently, they're now operating a high-profile blog.

jody said...

it doesn't matter what he does in NCAA football, or how he measures at the combine. he will get the same treatment in the NFL as jacob hester and brian leonard. toby is probably not even as good as a couple other white running backs in the last 10 years who got royally screwed by the NFL.

the only reason he even plays NCAA football is because there are over 100 teams. all 32 NFL teams practice a strict "blacks only" policy at corner back and running back. it is considered the highest possible insult to an NFL team to field a white running back. in conventional wisdom it means the team is an absolute joke. so bad they have to, LOL, actually have a white guy carry the ball? even the worst NFL team would rather lose games than put white players in the "wrong" positions.

black players that are slower, weaker, smaller, and less accomplished in NCAA football than toby will play ahead of him in the NFL. he will be told to block for them. if he doesn't want to do that, he won't even be in the league. and that's how it will go, because that's how the NFL has worked for at least 15 years. if the NFL is going to have affirmative action for hiring coaches and managers, toby should be able to sue the NFL for discrimination. but that's not allowed for white players.

speaking of ludicrous NFL discrimination, the matt jones situation is absolutely ridiculous. if there was any credibility in tony dungy's "I'm gonna rehabilitate troubled players" initiative, matt jones would be catching 3 or 4 passes a game in the NFL right now. tony is a good guy, and i like the premise behind his program. unfortunately the real world result here will be that tony simply ends up recycling the worst criminal black players back into the league. matt jones' horrible, unforgivable offense, was getting caught using cocaine one single time, then drinking a beer while on probation.

Anonymous said...

He fumbled today.

5.3 yards per carry is very good.

Anonymous said...

I think Gerhart has fumbled at least twice (USC and Oregon). But otherwise a black swan and for this reason fun to watch.

jody said...

if you want to know how badly things are stacked against white athletes doing the "wrong" things in american sports, you only need to realize that toby was the california state high school ALL-TIME leading rusher. as in, nobody in the history of the largest state in the US, has ever rushed for more yards in their high school career. yet all that got him was 3 or 4 total DI scholarship offers. USC ignored him completely.

what if the roles were reversed? consider a black student with the highest IQ ever measured at his high school and a perfect 1600 on his SAT (or is it 2400 now?) how many full academic scholarship offers would come his way? 3 or 4?

at school, would he be told, every single day by the other students, the parents, even by some of the teachers, to give it up, to forget it, to leave that science stuff to the white guys? would they laugh in his face when he told them he wanted to be a surgeon? would college recruiters look at his transcript and chortle? "Look at this black guy who thinks he can go pre-med? LOL. Don't black guys understand that they are too stupid to do this stuff?"

heck no. he would be encouraged, helped, and assisted every step of the way by the system. he would be actively recruited by most major universities. it is not considered acceptible to taunt even average black students. nobody goes around clowning them for doing bad at math "because you're black, so, duh, obviously, you're stupid."

this makes white hostility towards qualified white athletes doing the "wrong" things in sports, quite a mystery. many white people can't wait to tell capable white athletes what they can and can't do in sports. it is virtually conventional wisdom now what white guys "can't do", and many whites are quick to point these things out, practically with glee.

The Bear said...

Dobbs, the Navy QB, has rushed for 22 touchdowns.

Why not consider him?



When Tebow won the Heisman his sophomore year, he ran for 23 touchdowns and threw for another 32 touchdowns. His team went 8 - 4 that season. Since then his team has gone 23 - 1 with a national championship and a current no. 1 ranking. In 2006, his team also won a national championship. So his big numbers came in the year that his team had its worst record. I know you love stats, but they don't tell the whole story in football.

Anonymous said...

Off-topic, but I have gotta keep hammering this home.

Brandon Jennings, who as recently as six months ago couldn't get any playing time in Europe [where they enforce the rules], just dropped 55 points on the Warriors last night in the NBA [where they don't enforce the rules].

The game of basketball doesn't exist in the USA anymore.

Thanks a lot, David Stern.

Anonymous said...

this makes white hostility towards qualified white athletes doing the "wrong" things in sports, quite a mystery. many white people can't wait to tell capable white athletes what they can and can't do in sports. it is virtually conventional wisdom now what white guys "can't do", and many whites are quick to point these things out, practically with glee.

We see this at the local state college (which just won the NCAA championship last year) - the boosters on the message boards are all a-ga-ga over the black athletes, when in fact it's obvious (to anyone with the IQ of a walnut) that the best talent on the team (who literally towers over all the other players) is the big white-bread soda-cracker from Indiana.

Figgy said...

I figured Gerhart would do the usual white running back thing; that is, run into tough competition and wilt. But he's faced two "name" programs in a row and excelled in both games. So, I'm officially climbing on the Toby bandwagon, which is usually the kiss of death for athletes. But, I sure hope not.

I saw a special on him yesterday and he definitely has the tools - size, speed and vision. This guy is good. That being said, he'd almost be better off playing pro baseball, rather than subjecting himself to the pounding an NFL running back takes.

We should also mention their Freshman QB, Andrew Luck. He sure looked better than USC's latest Heisman candidate. But then again, he's probably a lot smarter.

Anonymous said...

I would love to see an NFL team owner field a team of only whites. Both to stick it to PC and to see if they could actually win.

Anonymous said...

i agree with jody.
Side note, before phelps got his golds Cullen Jones was the highest paid swimmer ..yeah the guy who almost blew the 4 x 100 for the US.
US swimming has a 'diversity' officer.

Truth said...

jody. you are either a liar. or a complete fool. there is no question. that there is some "slotting." of white football players in high school. but, these lies about gerhart. do not help matters at all.

gerhart was rated as high as the number 2 rated "fullback" in america. as you will see; he was offered scholarships by ucla, ole miss and notre dame. Gerhart himself also says that usc wanted him. but he insisted on playing baseball and pete caroll wouldn't let him play baseball. (pete caroll denies).

so in summary jody. although i feel that your heart is in the right place. i have one peice of advice for you: learn to read and think critically, and don't let don wasall do your thinking for you. he is already over 27.

Pallas said...

"But certainly not in nuclear physics or genetics or serious literature or satire of the highest order or supergreat music. I heard Mozart's IQ was around 220."

I heard Mozart did so well on the IQ test that they had to go back to the drawing board and invent a newer test just to measure how well he did!

Y'now, I really wish my local music store had a "supergreat music" section...

Truth said...

"Off-topic, but I have gotta keep hammering this home."

You appear to be hammering into a rice paper wall there, Sport.

Anonymous said...

Stanford was physically more impressive than I imagined they would be. I took the "white uniform effect" into consideration also. They looked big and fast against USC. Andrew Luck has more impressive physical skills than any USC quarterback since Carson Palmer. He should be a pro someday. Big arm, big hands, good footspeed, good height and build. He's got it all, and he's in Stanford so he's got to be pretty sharp mentally. I'd remember that name.

DCThrowback said...

I don't normally give gambling advice, but here's an easy one: Pac-10 champ (+) or (-) whatever the line is vs. Ohio State.

Anonymous said...

I'm curious, T: Why do you think it is that Brandon Jennings was struggling with "DNP - Coach's Decision" benchings in Europe as recently as six months ago, but now suddenly is able to drop 55 points a game in the NBA?

Don't you find that just a little odd?

Would you allow yourself to consider the possiblity that European basketball and NBA "basketball" [or whatever it is that we shold be calling it] are two different games played by two different sets of rules [at least de facto if not de jure]?

alonzo portfolio said...

@anonymous re Brandon Jennings:

Either you didn't see the game or you're a moron. He scored almost all his points on long-range jumpers off the break, where he just pulled up beyond the 3-point line. No fancy maneuvering necessary, and thus no issue of the rules being ignored for him.

Truth said...

"I'm curious, T: Why do you think it is that Brandon Jennings was struggling with "DNP - Coach's Decision" benchings in Europe as recently as six months ago, but now suddenly is able to drop 55 points a game in the NBA?

Don't you find that just a little odd?"

I was hoping to avoid this, as the response is going to be very long, but WTH, here goes:

Don't you find it a little odd that the NFL's leading receiver the last two years was traded to the patriots for a #2 and a #7 after doing basically nothing in a few years with Miami? (of course you don't because you see everything in terms of color; Jennings is black, everyone falls over themselves to help him, Welker is white, the all-powerful synagogue deep under the streets of Manhattan is rigging things to see him fail...I get this...but I'll try anyway!)

Wes Welker is 5'9 (officially, really probably 5'7) 190lbs. (ditto 178) and not fast, strong, rangy or gifted with long arms. So why is he so good in New England but a zero in Miami?

There are 11 offensive positions on the football field, 5 lineman and one QB are a given the rest are up to the coach. The Dolphins a few years ago, ran a power-I offense with a half-back a fullback and a tight end that leaves space for two outside WR. In order for Welker to play every down he has to win one of those jobs. Problem. an outside receiver is expected to get deep balls, hand fight with one-on-one coverage with cb's and make sideline catches. Welker does not run fast, have long arms, upper body strength or leaping ability. In other words, that's not what he is good at.

What Welker is good at is exploding off the line 5 yards from the QB on the outside of one of his OTs. He has excellent hands and cutting ability so he catches the ball 6 yards downfield (with a #3 CB or Safety or even an LB guarding him, never a #1 or #2 CB, they are guarding the fast guys who go deep on the sidelines.) and jetting forward for an 11 yard gain and a first down. He does it 10 times a game.

In short Welker's skills are not suited for what he was asked to do in Miami. The coach had two options with Welker

1) Change the offense to accomodate him.

2) Leave him struggling on the bench.

Now what, you say does this have to do with Jennings?

Brandon Jennings was a 6'1 150 shoot-first American point guard playing in a league where point guards (such as Rubio) take 3 shots a game and facilitate a slow-paced half-court offense. That is not what Jennings does well. First of all he's eight-freaking-teen and he is expected to run an offense for a bunch of 27 year old forigners who cannot understand him because he only speaks English. In addition EuroLeague basketball is much more physical than the NBA. Hand checking is allowed in the Euro league, it is not in the NBA. You think this might be a problem for a 150 lb. teen? Once again, the coach had two choices and the coach had two choices:


1) Change the offense to accomodate him.

2) Leave him struggling on the bench.

His coach was obviously not smart enough to realize that he had an NBA all-star riding his bench. He was as attached to his "system" as Welker's was in Miami. That is what separates great coaches from the rest.

And you see the results of said coaches mistakes before you.

Sideways said...

"jody. you are either a liar. or a complete fool. there is no question. that there is some "slotting." of white football players in high school. but, these lies about gerhart. do not help matters at all"

truth, I agree with you in general about Jody being nuts about the white players in football thing, but this works against you.

As you said, he got offers as a fb, not a hb. I don't want to set Jody off, but mike alstott. It's an insult to a guy able to dominate as a D1 hb to get fb offers, and Jody is probably right that they were fb instead of hb because he's white

Anonymous said...

FWIW, here are the physical stats on Welker:
5'8.2", 191 lbs., 4.55 sec/40, Sargent test (standing vertical jump - no run up) 30", standing broad jump - 9'5"

Here are Gerhart's numbers:
6'0.5", 235 lbs., 40 - 4.55 (high- 4.64, low - 4.48)