May 17, 2009

r = 0.89

Here are a couple of the graphs from my new VDARE.com article on the causes of the default crisis, focusing on the Big One: California.


And here's a scatterplot of foreclosure filing rate (vertical axis) v. share of total home purchase lending in 2006 that went to minorities by way of subprime mortgages:

r = 0.89.

It's important to note that you won't get the same insanely high correlation coefficient across the whole country. There's no where to go but down from r = 0.89. There are heavily Hispanic areas like the Rio Grande Valley where the economy is so dull and the cultural level so low that there was never a Housing Bubble. Same for black areas in Mississippi and the like.

Still, California is absolutely the central thread to understanding what went wrong with the economy, and the pattern is absolutely clear in California.

Read the article here.

My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

11 comments:

Donny said...

That's a lovely shade of brown.

Lugash said...

I am Lugash.

Obviously this proves that financial institutions were reverse-redlining minorities into mortgages they couldn't afford.

I am Lugash.

Anonymous said...

Steve said: There are heavily Hispanic areas like the Rio Grande Valley where the economy is so dull and the cultural level so low that there was never a Housing Bubble.A dull economy and low culture: better than a phony economy and "vibrancy."

Face it, other parts of the country are just more sensible than the SoCal dystopia.

RKU said...

This seems a little more complicated than it has to be...

Why not a simple scatterplot+correlation of the Latino percentage vs. dollar foreclosure amounts (or maybe rates) for the 20 CA metro areas?

Then the same for black percentage and Latino+black percentage.

Steve Sailer said...

"Why not a simple scatterplot+correlation of the Latino percentage vs. dollar foreclosure amounts (or maybe rates) for the 20 CA metro areas? Then the same for black percentage and Latino+black percentage."

For Hispanic share of total conventional home purchase mortgage dollars (prime and subprime) in 2006, the correlation with the Q1-2009 default rate in the top 20 metro areas is r = 0.68

For blacks, it's = 0.48.

For blacks plus Hispanics (with a small amount of overlap for the few black Hispanics such as Dominicans in California), it's 0.77.

For Native Hawaiians and Other Pacific Islanders, it's 0.54.

For American Indians, it's 0.44.

For Non-Asian Minorities (plus American Indians and a not insubstantial number of Pacific Islanders), it's 0.81.

For Asians, the correlation is 0.21.

For non-Hispanic whites, the correlation is -0.78.
For non-Hispanic whites, the correlation is

All these correlations are for prime&nonprime aggregated together.

Anonymous said...

Yo Steve, reading this VDare article lead me to "Report From Occupied America: Sunday in the Park with Jorge". I want to share an anecdote about something that occurred today (Sunday).

I headed down to the local community center (in my East coast town of 10,000) to shoot some hoops on the outdoor basketball court. As I pull in, I see about 100 Mexicans standing in lines practicing some silly dance for an unknown reason. They are occupying the basketball court and most of the parking lot.

It's hard to describe what went through my mind at that point. These aren't my people. They weren't here when I grew up. Their tax dollars did not build this community center. They are outsiders, occupying my town and setting up their own little colony.

And yet at that moment I felt like the outsider. I knew that if I went into that group and asked them what they were doing, I would be met with scorn and derision. I knew that I could not speak the language that they used among themselves. I thought that their behavior was bizarre, but I knew that they would feel the same way about mine.

I've had plenty of experience with racial (growing up the only white kid in an all-black neighborhood) and nationalist (being binational myself) tension, and I've recently become very interested in issues of white/American solidarity on race/nationality. But this was the first time in my life that I've ever felt like a stranger in my home town. What troubles me is that by the time most Americans start having experiences like this, it will be far too late.

Anonymous said...

The color coding makes the pie chart much easier to follow than typical graphs in the academic social science literature. Still, why are whites blue instead of white?

Anonymous said...

Steve, come on, you're boring the dorky Hindu do-me feminist. If you drive her away, all the lonely beta readers here will lose their only hope of ever getting some, so KNOCK IT OFF ALREADY!

rast said...

pssst Steve, black text on a black background is hard to read. You should have made whites white, and used the dark blue for blacks.

Lucius Vorenus said...

Anonymous: It's hard to describe what went through my mind at that point. These aren't my people. They weren't here when I grew up. Their tax dollars did not build this... They are outsiders, occupying my town and setting up their own little colony. And yet at that moment I felt like the outsider. I knew that if I went into that group and asked them what they were doing, I would be met with scorn and derision. I knew that I could not speak the language that they used among themselves. I thought that their behavior was bizarre...

Demographics are not the most important thing - demographics are the only thing.

Those who make the babies, make the future.

Either get busy making babies, or get busy dying.

Anonymous said...

"Steve, come on, you're boring the dorky Hindu do-me feminist. If you drive her away, all the lonely beta readers here will lose their only hope of ever getting some, so KNOCK IT OFF ALREADY!"

Stop picking on 'Mr.T'