October 27, 2008

Defaulting Latinos are voting for Obama

The LA Times walks around a Latino neighborhood in Las Vegas and finds growing support for Obama among the multitudinous "homeowners" who have defaulted on their mortgages and are awaiting foreclosure.

This helps explain a minor puzzle of recent history. As you'll recall, the 2004 exit poll initially reported that Bush had won 44% of the Hispanic vote. I pointed out how implausible this was from real world voting totals, and the exit poll people eventually admitted they'd messed up their methodology and the real number was around 40%.

But even 40% is pretty high for a Republican Presidential candidates. So, how did Bush and Rove get up around 40%?

Bush and Rove bought Latino votes in 2004 with Other People's Money. Bush's Housing Bubble was, more than anything else, a Hispanic Housing Bubble, with total mortgage dollars for Hispanic homebuyers going up an incredible 691% from 1999 to 2006. And all that cash flowing for home loans and home equity loans, whether to Hispanics or others, paid for a lot of Hispanic construction and home improvement workers.

Now, the firehose of money has been turned off because the reserves have been pumped dry, and Hispanics are flooding back to their natural home in the Democratic Party.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Karl Rove still believes Bush received 44% of the Hispanic vote. “We got 48% of women, 44% of Latinos, 25% of Jews, a majority of Catholics and 38% of union households,” Rove recalled.

Here:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5014706.ece

Stopped Clock said...

Regardless of whether Bush's numbers are off by a few points or not, I think it's clear that after correcting for income, Hispanics are the most Republican of our various racial minorities. Hispanics are only about 50% more likely than whites of similar income to vote Democratic, versus about 300% for Asians, 500% for American Indians, and over 1000% for blacks.

Note: those are very rough numbers because there isn't a good source of party membership by race *and* income to go on. But even if I'm off by miles, my point is that if we conservatives think that 65% of Hispanics voting for Obama is bad, we should realize that it could be a lot worse. And to those who say that the Hispanic vote isnt large enough to matter, remember that a lot of whites will be influenced to vote Democrat if they see that "only (racist) whites vote Republican".

jody said...

1) the joke is on mccain, of course, as he has spent at least 10 years kissing brown butts. the guy has given the keynote at the la raza national convention, for crying out loud.

2) your blog is totally stupid and flat out wrong as long as you continue to use "hispanic" and "latino" in the same wildly incorrect way that it is used in modern american english. you're talking about mestizos and american indians like they were actual latinos. they aren't.

do we next talk about black americans as anglo-saxons because they speak english and have english names? "Anglo-Saxons vote overwhelmingly Democrat, news at 11."

it has gotten to the point where the sports media is confused about actual hispanics like jeff garcia and anthony gonzalez, with ESPN writer bill simmons wondering why white guys have hispanic names when they aren't hispanic. WTF...

pau gasol is never identified as hispanic or even talked about as being latino, which is downright strange considering the new american obsession with "latinos". gasol is the most latino athlete in the entire united states sports landscape, not just basketball. you can't be more latin than gasol, being directly from spain with his classic swarthy euro looks.

Truth said...

"you can't be more latin than gasol, being directly from spain with his classic swarthy euro looks."

Swarthy?

Dat' Ni- butt ugly!

Richard h said...

"it has gotten to the point where the sports media is confused about actual hispanics like jeff garcia and anthony gonzalez, with ESPN writer bill simmons wondering why white guys have hispanic names when they aren't hispanic. WTF...
"

HAHA, I used to watch sports as a teen and had almost forgotten what it was like to be dealing with a totally different part of the bell curve.

Ronduck said...

Anonymous said...

Karl Rove still believes Bush received 44% of the Hispanic vote. “We got 48% of women, 44% of Latinos, 25% of Jews, a majority of Catholics and 38% of union households,” Rove recalled.

Rove mentions 6 groups so let's look at them. These groups are:

*Hispanics
Majority Catholic or sympathetic to the Church as a cultural center.

*Women & Jews
Ditto

*Catholics
I assume Rove means White or White ethnic Catholics. It is amazing that after 100-150 years in the US these people still vote for the party of alienation from mainstream America and then claim that they are the "Real Americans" or that they "built America." And yet these are the people who are tearing America apart.

*Union Households
Most right-to-work states have unionization rates below 5% so most of these union households must be located in the Far North, specifically in the Rust Belt in states like MI that are 40%+ Catholic.

Now that the children of the Great Wave are finally assimilating there is a new wave that is coming in with the assistance of the doodering old members of the last wave like Ted Kennedy. I've always wondered why Ted is never excommunicated for his private life or his sponsorship of abortion which the Church often claims to be against. There must be something that Ted is doing that the RCC approves of...

Captain Jack Aubrey said...

Karl Rove still believes Bush received 44% of the Hispanic vote.

But that's a majority, right? That's what Karl told me - and I only have a BA from Yale and an MBA from Harvard, so I wouldn't really know.

Hispanics are only about 50% more likely than whites of similar income to vote Democratic, versus about 300% for Asians

Interesting data, if true, but who the hell cares how poor Asians vote when there aren't that many of them (at least not after a generation or so)?

The goal of the Democratic Party is to reassign weath from the productive to the non-productive. As Democrats achieve their goal, Asians will have even more reasons not to vote for them, especially if AA gets strengthened. And the only way to strengthen AA without harming Asians is...well, you know.

White nationalism, or some toned-down variant of it, is on its way if the Dems get their way. This is not Europe, where most of the beneficiaries of government handouts are racially similar; where people say to
themselves "that could be me."

For eveery reaction there is an equal and opposite reaction. You push against a wall and the wall pushes back.

Someone earlier mentioned Jacksonian populism. I recall something very race realist that Andrew Jackson did. Let me see if the tiny amount of Cherokee blood in me has any racial memory of it...

Anonymous said...

It's amazing on how one party can brag about 40% of a demographic group. This means the other party got 60%!! This is a landslide number. I thought Republicans would not be able to win the presidency after 2016 based on changing demographics,but at best it looks like 2012 might be the last. After 4 years of Obama, anyone will do.